Cost estimation in flat plate processing using fuzzy sets

Abstract

Cost estimation in Flat Plate Processes (FPP's) involves a combination of man, machine and resources and consequently, a combination of physical processes, engineering resources and economic laws as well as actions and behaviour of people should be taken into consideration. Thus, in cost estimation process, apart from physical and engineering variables, there often exist several subjective criteria, which need to be described qualitatively and linguistically. In addition, there are some probabilistic or random variables including labour fatigue, shortage of resources and materials, failure of machines, unavailability of facilities and so on, which can not be accurately predicted. Using analytical and mathematical approaches, it is not possible to quantify and transform these imprecise and subjective criteria and random factors into proper input variable in the cost estimation model. Therefore, the state of uncertainty should be considered in cost estimation problem in some ways. In this paper, fuzzy sets and probability distribution approaches are applied to tackle the problem of uncertainty in cost estimation in order to generate reliable cost estimates in flat plate processing industry.