Understanding Russia: Personalist Autocracy Versus Historical Continuity

Abstract

In Weak Strongman: The Limits of Power in Putin’s Russia, Timothy Frye provides an invaluable antidote to the Western preoccupation with the Russian president. Vladimir Putin, he convincingly argues, operates in a political context that constrains his options as he seeks to maintain indispensable elite support and avoid destabilising popular discontent. Understanding that context is critical, and Frye contends that the best way to do so is to look at other so-called ‘personalist autocracies’, such as Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey or Nicolás Maduro’s Venezuela. But Frye overstates his case and errs in dismissing the role Russia’s unique history, geography and culture have played in shaping Russian behaviour and Putin’s choices. Indeed, Putin operates within a political tradition whose core features have endured for centuries across multiple regimes. Contrary to Frye, understanding the historical continuity of the Kremlin’s strategic calculus is essential to making sense of Russia today.