Uncovering the national and regional household carbon emissions in China using temporal and spatial decomposition analysis models

Abstract

The household sector of China is responsible for 11.7% of national energy consumption and 12.6% of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in 2015. Thus, revealing the determinants of household CO2 emissions (HCE) is extremely important for national efforts towards emissions mitigation. In this context, this paper investigates the driving forces behind national and regional HCE changes employing a temporal Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) model. It also analyses interregional discrepancies in HCE using a spatial LMDI model. This study decomposes the changes or discrepancies of national and regional HCE from 2000 to 2015 into seven key factors. The temporal analysis indicates that household income is the predominant determinant explaining the increase of HCE, whereas energy intensity is the crucial determinant contributing to the mitigation of HCE. The spatial analysis reveals that the number of households and energy intensity are primary driving forces accountable for growing discrepancies in HCE, followed by household income, energy structure and carbon emission coefficient. The analysis also suggests that resourceful and economically developed regions generally have larger potential for mitigation of HCE. The study concludes with some policy recommendations based on the results.