Abstract
Summary This research is focused on developing a methodology for estimating well production forecasting that supports conceptual field development plans in organic-rich mudstone reservoirs encompassing typical exploitation stages in these kind of reservoirs: exploratory, appraisal, commercial demonstration, and manufacturing. The forecast simultaneously involves produce fluids (oil, water and gas) from both flow-back and decline periods in multistage hydraulic fracture (MSHF) horizontal wells. This methodology is applied in new exploration areas where vertical wells are already drilled. Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR) per horizontal well is estimated probabilistically combining volumetric and stochastic methods taken into account uncertainties associated with each petrophysical, fluid, and recovery factor (RF) properties. Arp´s modified Decline Curve Analysis (DCA) is applied based on typical behaviors observed from USA unconventional plays to have ranges for each DCA variables, especially initial decline (D_i) and b-factor. Thus, ranges for flow-back time, initial oil rate (Q_oi,), water oil ratio, and gas oil ratio are tuned to match the probabilistic EUR. Then, aggregation curve methods are used to obtained EUR probabilistic distribution as a function of numbers of wells.
Published Version
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