Uncertainty regarding instantaneous discharge obtained from stage-discharge rating curves built with low density discharge measurements

Abstract

This work concerned uncertainty analysis for constructing stage-discharge rating curves to estimate error or uncertainty regarding calculated discharges, considering different discharge measurement availability scenarios. A methodology was used for creating artificial samples of discharge measurements from real data observed in the field and the effect of variation on measurement quantity and distribution concerning instantaneous discharge uncertainty was then studied. The results indicated that discharge uncertainty mostly depends on the number of river discharge measurements used for rating curve calibration and on the extent of extrapolation outside the range of measured river water levels. This research found that uncertainty regarding instantaneous discharges calculated for the area within average level values could be as high as 14% when the rating curve was calibrated with few measurements. Uncertainty can reach 20% and 60% for high and low water level values, respectively, or even higher depending on the extent of rating curve extrapolation. This work established that 35 discharge measurements for rating curve calibration were needed to fulfill World Meteorological Organization standards concerning discharge defined for low water level values.