Uncertainty quantification of a spent fuel refrigeration pool utilizing a [formula omitted] turbulence reduced order model

Abstract

In this article, the uncertainty of a three-dimensional turbulent natural convection transient is quantified in a geometry representing an idealized spent fuel pool. The assessment is carried out through the creation of a surrogate fast model. This is build utilizing Proper Orthogonal Decomposition and Galerkin projection applied to a K-ϵ turbulent Navier–Stokes formulation. We discuss the uncertainties created by a uncertain heat release of the spent fuel elements. We consider the hypothesis of deviations that follow the normal distribution around a certain nominal value, with different standard deviations and sample size. The expected results and its uncertainty are henceforth computed by Monte–Carlo method, calculating hundreds of solutions of the Initial Value Problem with the surrogate model.