Abstract
Regional water resource modelling is important for evaluating system performance by analyzing the reliability, resilience and vulnerability criteria of the system. In water resource systems modelling, several uncertainties abound, including data inadequacy and errors, modeling inaccuracy, lack of knowledge, imprecision, inexactness, randomness of natural phenomena, and operational variability, in addition to challenges such as growing population, increasing water demands, diminishing water sources and climate change. Recent advances in modelling techniques along with high computational capabilities have facilitated rapid progress in this area. In India, several studies have been carried out to understand and quantify uncertainties in various basins, enumerate large temporal and regional mismatches between water availability and demands, and project likely changes due to warming. A comprehensive review of uncertainties in water resource modelling from an Indian perspective is yet to be done. In this work, we aim to appraise the quantification of uncertainties in systems modelling in India and discuss various water resource management and operation models. Basic formulation of models for probabilistic, fuzzy and grey/inexact simulation, optimization, and multi-objective analyses to water resource design, planning and operations are presented. We further discuss challenges in modelling uncertainties, missing links in integrated systems approach, along with directions for future.
Highlights
Water resource management is about the integration of various disciplines of hydrology for the planning, management and optimum utilization of water resources following the competing needs and demands of society
Water resource systems models have advanced in several directions, starting with modelling approaches, uncertainty quantification, ease in decision making of stakeholders, along with climate change impact adaptation
Uncertainty quantification in water resource systems models has been identified as an active research topic in the research community
Summary
Water resource management is about the integration of various disciplines of hydrology for the planning, management and optimum utilization of water resources following the competing needs and demands of society. Integrated regional water resource management models have evolved to secure water resource systems at the basin scale in terms of water quantity and quality, accounting for water availability and the demands of various users [1]. In this context, water resource systems models have been evolved in the past four decades in several aspects of single and multi-purpose reservoirs, optimization models, knowledge-based decisions, real time operations, imprecision and uncertainty quantifications and climate change [13]. Missing links in modelling, challenges remaining and future directions are noted
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