Uncertainty Quantification in the Prediction of Remaining Useful Life Considering Multiple Failure Modes

Abstract

Abstract Despite the substantive literature on remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, less attention is paid to the influence of epistemic uncertainty and aleatory uncertainty in multiple failure behaviors in the accuracy of RUL. The research question in this study was: can uncertainties be quantified in predicting the RUL of systems with multiple failure modes? The first objective was to quantify the uncertainties in the prediction of RUL, considering known multiple failure modes. This objective used vibration data from accelerated degradation experiments of rolling element bearings. The second objective was to calculate the uncertainties in the prediction of RUL, considering the multiple failure modes as unknown. The experimental data used in this objective was from run-to-failure tests of Li-ion batteries. An analysis was performed on how the uncertainties affect the RUL prediction in systems with known multiple failure modes and systems with multiple failure modes as unknown. A Bayesian neural network was used to quantify epistemic and aleatory uncertainty while predicting RUL. The results of the qualitative uncertainties on RUL in systems with multiple failure modes were presented and discussed. Also, the study yielded an RUL uncertainty quantification model for multiple failure modes. The proposed framework’s performance in the RUL prediction was demonstrated. Finally, the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties were quantified in the RUL of the system. It was shown that multiple failure modes have more sources of uncertainties, leading to an increase in the total uncertainty in the estimated RUL and a lower RUL value. The results in this paper may lead to the design of more reliable systems that exhibit multiple failure modes.