Uncertainty quantification in fatigue crack-growth predictions

Abstract

The reliability of the damage tolerance approach to engineering design is affected by numerous sources of uncertainty that can lead to unsafe predictions, in turn jeopardizing the safety of structures. This work presents a robust stochastic framework for fatigue crack-growth predictions applied to a round bar under tension–compression loading conditions. Multi-source uncertainties were taken into account to derive the lifespan distribution for the bar in such a way to cover the uncertainties typically appearing in a structural integrity assessment. The sensitivity of each input variable was obtained and the influences of variables on the life predictions were derived and ranked accordingly.