Uncertainty quantification: data assimilation, propagation and validation of the numerical model of the Arade river cable-stayed bridge

Abstract

This paper aims at quantifying the uncertainties and their propagation effects in the numerical modelling of a cable-stayed bridge. To this purpose, the uncertainty quantification approach is implemented in a probabilistic finite element geometrically nonlinear elastic analysis performed in ANSYS®. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the impact of statistical treatment of significant parameters on the results and validate a predictive model. Given the uncertainties associated with the input parameters, the propagation of uncertainties of output parameters is evaluated by sampling-based approaches using Monte Carlo method. Finally, the probability density function of outputs is compared with experimental data to extract a measure of confidence in the numerical results. The methodology provides a tool to evaluate the effects of model parameter uncertainty on the modal response of the bridge. Although the results presented in this study are limited to a numerical model of a cable-stayed bridge, this methodology can be readily applied to the different bridges and structural typologies.