Abstract
Abstract The aim of the paper is to describe spatial differences in the uncertainty of features of the flow regimes of rivers in Europe on the basis of measures whose methodological assumptions derive from Shannon’s information entropy theory (1948). They included: the entropy of monthly flow volumes, the entropy of the flow distribution over time, and the entropy of maximum and minimum monthly flows. An analysis was made of monthly flow series for the years 1951-1990 from 510 gauging stations located on 369 rivers in Europe. It allowed a quantitative determination of the degree of uncertainty of the four regime characteristics, indirectly establishing the predictability, regularity and stability of their appearance and their spatial variability. In the procedure of identification of spatial differences among rivers concerning the uncertainty of their flow regime features, use was made of local indices of spatial dependence. On application of LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Association) based on Moran’s local Ii statistic, a typology of rivers was obtained in terms of the kind and statistical significance of spatial associations involving the uncertainty of the flow regime variables in question.
Highlights
An important stream of present-day research on environmental changes is the detection of change in the hydrological cycle, both at the global scale as well as the regional and local ones
On application of LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Association) based on Moran’s local Ii statistic, a typology of rivers was obtained in terms of the kind and statistical significance of spatial associations involving the uncertainty of the flow regime variables in question
The purpose of this paper is to propose and verify the usefulness of a few measures of regime features derived from Shannon’s information entropy theory (1948) in assessing the stability and uncertainty of the flow regimes of European rivers
Summary
An important stream of present-day research on environmental changes is the detection of change in the hydrological cycle, both at the global scale as well as the regional and local ones. Regular variations in all river-related phenomena are defined by the river’s hydrological regime. It determines the state and responses of the river system in relation to the climatic system and the physical-geographic features of the river basin. Among studies of the effect of changes in the climatic conditions on the geographical environment, including water resources, there is a growing number of those dealing with climatic factors underlying changes in the seasonality of river flows and regimes An assessment of the effect of changes in and variability of the climate on the hydrological regimes of rivers in Europe was presented by Arnell (1999b). An interesting survey of methods used so far to establish climatic determinants of changes in the flow regime of rivers and their critical appraisal is offered by Bower et al (2004)
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