Uncertainty in the application of the Parabolic Bay Shape Equation: Part 1

Abstract

This paper aims to quantify the uncertainty in the application of the Parabolic Bay Shape Equation (PBSE) for a bay in static equilibrium. By means of expert elicitation, a database was generated consisting of the position of the control points that determine the Static Equilibrium Planform (SEP). The elicitation consisted of two parts. In Part 1, 22 expert volunteers were asked to place the three control points that determine the SEP on a vertical aerial photograph of Taquaras–Taquarinhas Bay, a morphologically stable bay in the south of Brazil, approximately 1800 m in width and with an indentation of 750 m. The distribution of the location of the SEP along four evenly spaced (200 m) profiles in the southern part of the bay was determined. The overall bias of the location of the SEP calculated over the four profiles was in the order of 41 m (landward) and the average standard deviation was 116 m. These parameters increased when moving alongshore toward the curved section of the bay. This means that the uncertainty in the application of the PBSE is dependent on the particular point of interest along the bay. In Part 2 of the elicitation, 30 volunteers participated. This time the consequence of the placement of the control points (the corresponding SEP) was visible. Comparing the results from Parts 1 and 2, it was observed that when volunteers were directly confronted with the result of the placement of the control points (a plotted SEP) a much smaller variation in the position of the SEP occurred. This implies that when feedback on the result is provided the PBSE is a more robust method.