Uncertainty in best value decision making

Abstract

The sheer volume of decisions taken within the public sector procurement process prevents perfect and complete information being obtained and applied to every best value tender analysis that is carried out. As such, uncertainty must be accepted as a feature of the best value decision‐making process. This paper reports research which is developing a methodology for utilising the uncertainty component in best value tender analysis in order to create a more transparent decision making process. The main output of the research is the production of a robust support tool which aids the multi objective decision making process within the public sector of the UK construction industry by provoking rational discussion with respect to; the industry’s key performance indicators (KPIs), the client’s attitude to risk and provides a transparent audit trail of the decisions taken. The underlying rationale for the support tool is based on a combination of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Multi‐Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) and Whole Life Costing (WLC). The paper demonstrates the practical utility of the methodology of the tool through a tender decision process.