Uncertainty Evaluation Algorithm in Power System Dynamic Analysis With Correlated Renewable Energy Sources

Abstract

The variation and uncertainty of renewable energy potentially impact power system stability. This article proposes an efficient uncertainty evaluation algorithm to evaluate the influence of renewable energy uncertainty on power system dynamic performance. This algorithm applies probabilistic collocation method (PCM), which greatly reduces the simulation burden without compromising the result accuracy, to approximate the dynamic simulation results. The proposed algorithm also considers the correlation among adjacent renewable generators by using the Copula function, which is suitable to model nonlinear correlations. Additionally, this article extends the utilization of PCM. The actual historical data of renewable generation productions can be utilized directly, and kernel density estimation (KDE) is used to capture the nonparametric distribution of renewable generation production. To improve the accuracy of the approximation results, the proposed method adopts K-means clustering technique to select the approximation samples of input variables. The proposed probabilistic dynamic simulation algorithm is compared with Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) with the probabilistic results on the IEEE 39-bus system with multiple renewable generators, and the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed algorithm are validated.