Uncertainty based design methodology system for naval gun weapon

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Abstract With the continuous improvement of the requirements for progressiveness and economic affordability of naval gun weapon, the development of naval gun weapon is facing increasingly severe challenges. The current naval gun weapon are still based on deterministic design, but there is insufficient attention paid to the large number of random and cognitive uncertainty factors in the entire lifecycle process of naval gun weapon. These uncertain factors are often the root cause of a series of problems such as long R&D cycles, low manufacturing qualification rates, difficulties in use and maintenance, and low reliability. This article focuses on the current status of naval gun weapon design. Firstly, it analyzes the uncertainty factors and their impacts throughout the entire lifecycle of naval gun weapon. Then, it elucidates the method system and challenges encountered in uncertainty design. It points out that quantitatively evaluating and controlling performance dispersion in each stage of design is an effective method for formulating the optimal design scheme for comprehensive performance, reliability, robustness, and cost throughout the entire lifecycle.