Uncertainty Assessment using Monte Carlo Simulation in Net Thrust Measurement at AETF

Abstract

In this paper, Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) method was used as an uncertainty assessment tool for air flow, net thrust measurement. Uuncertainty sources of the net thrust measurement were analyzed, and the probability distribution characteristics of each source were discussed. Detailed MCS methodology was described including the effect of the number of simulation. Compared to the conventional sensitivity coefficient method, the MCS method has advantage in the uncertainty assessment. The MCS is comparatively simple, convenient and accurate, especially for complex or nonlinear measurement modeling equations. The uncertainty assessment result by MCS was compared with that of the conventional sensitivity coefficient method, and each method gave different result. The uncertainties in the net thrust measurement by the MCS and the conventional sensitivity coefficient method were 0.906% and 1.209%, respectively. It was concluded that the first order Taylor expansion in the conventional sensitivity coefficient method and the nonlinearity of model equation caused the difference. It was noted that the uncertainty assessment method should be selected carefully according to the mathematical characteristics of the model equation of the measurement.