Uncertainty assessment for ship maneuvering mathematical model

Abstract

An 8 degrees of freedom (DoF) ship maneuvering motion model for a twin-propeller twin-rudder high-speed hull form is developed from captive model experiment data available from literatures. The degrees of freedom considered are surge, sway, yaw, roll, rudder rate and propeller rate. Besides maneuvering motion model, variation of port/starboard propeller thrust and torque and port/starboard rudder normal force and rudder torque are also included in the model. An uncertainty analysis computation for the mathematical model is carried out. Uncertainties in the experimental data and the polynomial curve fitting during modeling are included in the computation. It is shown that the mathematical model uncertainty is higher than the experimental uncertainty. Uncertainty is propagated to full-scale zigzag maneuver using the conventional Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method. The uncertainty analysis results will be useful for further improvement of mathematical model, validation of CFD simulation results of appended hull maneuvering tests, etc. The authors have also shown the utility of asymmetric operations of the twin-propeller and twin-rudder by carrying out full-scale simulation a zigzag maneuver and showing the variation of the rudder normal force and torque.