Uncertainty and sensitivity assessments on the inputs of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment: A case study of the North Tehran fault

Abstract

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) often incorporates significant uncertainty in its inputs, which have the potential to substantially affect the estimated hazards. To improve the reliability of seismic hazards, the present work examines how these uncertainties impact the variability of PSHA and disaggregation results. For this purpose, uncertainty and sensitivity analyses have been performed for different sites in the Tehran region, with the seismic source of the North Tehran Fault as a case study. The results show that uncertainties in the input parameters have a moderate to significant effect on the PSHA and disaggregation results. The uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of this study provide a better understanding of the various PSHA parameters and their associated uncertainties. Therefore, such analyses establish confidence in the PSHA results and expose the main sources of uncertainty, which enable the prioritization of endeavors to reduce hazard variability.