Simple method for probabilistic seismic landslide hazard analysis based on seismic hazard curve and incorporating uncertainty of strength parameters

Abstract

Seismic landslide hazard assessment is typically based on deterministic analysis to calculate slope displacements during an earthquake. However, deterministic analysis is unable to account for various uncertainties in the analysis process. This study focuses on utilizing the established results from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and extending probabilistic seismic landslide hazard analysis (PSLHA) to account for the uncertainties of ground motions and soil strengths. Two simplified methods, being flexible and fast, are proposed and evaluated by comparing with the fully but complex probabilistic method. One of the methods that yields a better performance is applied to evaluate the probabilistic seismic landslide hazard in the Tsao-Ling area of Taiwan using information regarding the seismic hazard curve and it's deaggregation results. Lastly, seismic landslide hazard maps are constructed for different return periods and compared with the deterministic map for the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake.