Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of Building Energy Demand Model Based on Occupant Behaviors

Abstract

This paper attempts to illustrate Uncertainty Analysis (UA) and Sensitivity Analysis (SA) of real-time building energy demand model, which is derived from the dynamic relation of occupant behaviors and building space. UA and SA are indispensable sections of system development to insure the efficiency and accuracy of the model while there are three essential stage of UA and SA we followed. In terms of UA and SA, it is possible to structure a rational framework of complex dynamic network model, and discover the mapping between building energy demand and particular relation network patterns. We assume, firstly, a multi-mode dynamic relation networks model of occupant behavior, building space and temporal unit tends to be developed, and the definitions of basic model framework are given. Then, in the cases of the definitions in the basic model framework assumption, the propagation of uncertainty is taken into consideration according to the sampling based methods mapping the input parameters patterns onto the predictable results. Finally, we discuss the determination of sensitivity analysis with Morris method and Variance-based methods. In this paper, via UA and SA, our goal is to optimize the mapping procedure of the Dynamic Network Analysis (DNA) in building energy demand model, explore the essential input parameters pattern, and improve the precision of real-time model prediction.