Abstract
Uncertainty of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions was analyzed using the parametric Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method and the non-parametric bootstrap method. There was a certain number of observations required of a dataset before GHG emissions reached an asymptotic value. Treating a coefficient (i.e., GHG emission factor) as a random variable did not alter the mean; however, it yielded higher uncertainty of GHG emissions compared to the case when treating a coefficient constant. The non-parametric bootstrap method reduces the variance of GHG. A mathematical model for estimating GHG emissions should treat the GHG emission factor as a random variable. When the estimated probability density function (PDF) of the original dataset is incorrect, the nonparametric bootstrap method, not the parametric MCS method, should be the method of choice for the uncertainty analysis of GHG emissions.
Highlights
In accordance with the Paris Accord, many countries around the world set up voluntary goals for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and implement various action plans, including related research to achieve the goals
Input variables are the input and output of materials and energies from a product system such as resources consumed and emissions discharged as well as activities such as transportation. Those related to GHG emissions are chosen together with their corresponding GHG emission factor for use in Equation (1)
The GHG emission model relies on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) tier GHG emission factor recommended by the IPCC
Summary
In accordance with the Paris Accord, many countries around the world set up voluntary goals for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and implement various action plans, including related research to achieve the goals. Many industrial sectors set up the goals and action plans to comply with the Paris Accord. They include, among others, goals related to energy, industrial processes and product use, agriculture, forest and other land use, and waste. The energy sector, including the transportation sector, formulated three different policy scenarios for the carbon emission goal in 2050 and computed. Vázquez-Rowe et al [2] estimated GHG emissions of cement production in three relevant national cement plants to identify the main GHG mitigation strategies throughout the whole supply chain in industrial processes and the product use sector. Baek et al [3]
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