Uncertainty Analysis of Annual Wind Speed in Northern China and Its Potential Impact on Energy Sector

Abstract

In this article, the wind energy uncertainty caused by annual wind speed variation in northern China is studied. The research time period is from 1991 to 2020, and the ERA5 reanalysis wind data is used. The uncertainty statistical indicators are the standard deviation percentage and the maximum deviation percentage of the average wind power density. The analysis results show that the uncertainty of wind energy in Qinghai, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi is relatively large, these areas are more likely to experience large fluctuations of wind power. Among them, the standard deviation percentage of Qinghai and Xinjiang accounts for 15%-30% or higher. The maximum deviation percentage of Qinghai, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi accounts for 30%-60% or higher. In addition, the empirical orthogonal function analysis (EOF) results show that there is an anti-phase mechanism of local wind energy fluctuations in Northern China, especially between the Northeast and Northwest regions, which implies that the power transmission between the Northeast and Northwest regions is helpful to reduce the wind energy uncertainty effect.