Uncertainty Analysis in Ecological Risk Assessment: Sensitivity Analysis of Different Exposure Models

Abstract

Ecological risk assessments are used for decision making regarding releasing new products to market as well as remedial action required to address contamination at legacy sites. Uncertainty analysis is considered a key part of the process (USEPA 1997) but assessments seldom address uncertainty quantitatively. Key sources of uncertainty include: Sampling and analytical variability (soil/ sediment matrix, lab error), Choice of “Indicator” Species as Target Receptors for Different Exposure Pathways, Sample size. Bioaccumulation and Food Chain Modeling involve assumptions and uncertainty including: Linear assumption of bioaccumulation and selection of bioaccumulation factors; Other model inputs such as: Home range size, Dietary percentages, Body Weights, Ingestion Rate; Literature data on effects, Use of No Observed Adverse Effects Level (NOAEL) or Lowest Observed Adverse Effects Level (LOAEL) as a decision point. Toxicity testing where employed brings its own set of assumptions and interpretation that are subject to uncertainty. These include: Use of single organism, Correlation (or lack thereof) with Contaminants of Concern, Contaminant mixtures, and Reference area selection. Keywords: Ecotoxicology, Risk Assessment, Ecology