Uncertainties in the South African wind load design formulation

Abstract

This paper presents an investigation of the uncertainties inherent in the South African formulation of design wind loads on structures, as stipulated by SANS 10160-3:2011. The investigation follows from the identification of anomalous values in the existing South African probabilistic wind load models during a reliability assessment of SANS 10160. The primary wind load components which have the greatest effect on the total wind load uncertainty are identified as the time variant free-field wind pressure, followed by the time invariant pressure coefficients and terrain roughness factors. A rational and transparent reliability framework for the quantification of the uncertainties inherent in the formulation of these components is then presented. Probabilistic models of these components were developed following independent investigations of each component. The results from these investigations show that the existing probabilistic wind load models underestimate the uncertainty of the wind load components, particularly when considering the time invariant components.