Uncertainties have a meaning: Information entropy as a quality measure for 3-D geological models

Abstract

Analyzing, visualizing and communicating uncertainties are important issues as geological models can never be fully determined. To date, there exists no general approach to quantify uncertainties in geological modeling. We propose here to use information entropy as an objective measure to compare and evaluate model and observational results. Information entropy was introduced in the 50s and defines a scalar value at every location in the model for predictability. We show that this method not only provides a quantitative insight into model uncertainties but, due to the underlying concept of information entropy, can be related to questions of data integration (i.e. how is the model quality interconnected with the used input data) and model evolution (i.e. does new data – or a changed geological hypothesis – optimize the model). In other words information entropy is a powerful measure to be used for data assimilation and inversion.As a first test of feasibility, we present the application of the new method to the visualization of uncertainties in geological models, here understood as structural representations of the subsurface. Applying the concept of information entropy on a suite of simulated models, we can clearly identify (a) uncertain regions within the model, even for complex geometries; (b) the overall uncertainty of a geological unit, which is, for example, of great relevance in any type of resource estimation; (c) a mean entropy for the whole model, important to track model changes with one overall measure. These results cannot easily be obtained with existing standard methods.The results suggest that information entropy is a powerful method to visualize uncertainties in geological models, and to classify the indefiniteness of single units and the mean entropy of a model quantitatively. Due to the relationship of this measure to the missing information, we expect the method to have a great potential in many types of geoscientific data assimilation problems — beyond pure visualization.