Un horizon conjoncturel dégagé

Abstract

A cleared short term horizon Division modèle trimestriel Mosaïque Most Western economies experience sustained growth rates, but business conditions still widely differ. Optimism on the real economy gees with a large financial turmoil : exchange rates markets are upset by trade imbalances ; long term interest rates have sharply risen everywhere, fearing, first, the U.S. inflation, then acknowledging the revision of European growth prospects. The present level of long term rates reveals how much the existing production facilities have trouble to finance, on a world basis, more numerous investment plans. Nevertheless real rates prove to be lower than during the previous recovery, and the present financial situation of European firms do not make them much capital cost sensitive, till the end of 1995. The main questions are related to how public indebtedness will be brought under control, and how European societies will withstand the lasting levy on labour earnings due to high interest rates. In the United States, output is presently buoyed by the foreign demand, which calls for a new stiffening of monetary policy, in order to halt the inflationary drift. A slowdown is expected during 1995, started by private consumption. Japan is recovering, presently driven by individual spending, thus strengthening world growth. In the United Kingdom, investment and exports have speeded up output and reduced unemployment : private consumption has above all benefited by a lesser propensity to save. Inflationary risks will go on tightening the policy stance, and growth will be restrained next year. Western Germany has turned up thanks to exports and some restocking. Real estate and private consumption resist to tax rises. Spare capacities in the manufacturing industry will be elimininated as early as the end of 1994, which spurs productive investment and rekindles inflationary expectations. But, with a still high unemployment, retail prices should sit still. Growth looks robust in the eastern part. Capitals have deserted Europe to favour Japan then the emerging countries. Japanese investors are occasionally coming back and would be more present in 1995, when American borrowing needs will abate. World trade has entered a phase of strong growth that will last next year. Countries from continental Europe will regain market shares at the expense of Japan. In France, the recovery has been significant during the first half of 1994. Business surveys confirm the optimism. The upturn is all the more pronounced as a quite depressive private stance comes to a halt. GDP growth would reach 2,2 % in 1994, with inventories contributing to it for more than a percentage point. Final internal demand surge, taking place from the second quarter, would expand itself. Private consumption would go on increasing ; productive investment would follow, especially during the second half, but would still poorly behave on a year-on-year basis. Import growth would lead the export one, due to diverging performances early in the year. 1995 growth would reach 3,5 %, a usual outcome of a recovery, though not as strong as during the previous cycle ; the focus on debt shading is still present, as short term interest rates have stopped falling and long term rates have risen. Such moves will not endanger the recovery in progress, though reining in its pace. Productive investment would increase as sharply as it did fall in 1993 ; the catch-up will be only partial after three years of decline. As corporations rapidly improved their balance sheets, they can presently meet their long differed investment needs ; the recent rise of capacities utilization rates induces them to do so. Private consumption would revive, carried by more income and a falling saving ratio. Some restocking would progressively take place, supporting growth. Imports would go on a par with exports, witnessing more synchronized domestic and foreign demands. In 1994 and 1995, external surpluses would settle down somewhat, owing to price movements, although remaining meaningful. Unemployment would be slightly reduced and inflation would not much accelerate. The government deficit will be checked without any significant expense cuts, thanks to privatization receipts, but meeting social transfers will need additional contributions.