Abstract
Expected Growth Swings. Forecasts for 1999-2000 for the world economy Forecasts for 1999-2000 for the world economy Division Economie internationale The Asian turmoil seems to be over Spring 1999. Recovery is taking place in Asian NICs, whereas the Brazilian crisis leads Latin America to fall into recession. Growth would slow in Eastern European economies, while GDP would decline in Russia. Oil prices would slowly recover. Expansionary fiscal policy would allow a Japanese GDP growth of 0.5% this year and 2.5 in 2000. The US GDP, still boosted by internal demand, would rise by 3.5% in 1999 and by 2.6 in 2000. According to the Mimosa model, a fall of 20% in equity prices would have a negative impact of 0.7% on the US GDP. Industrial activity has strongly decelerated in the euro area as a consequence of world trade slowdown. Owing to internal demand, world trade acceleration and higher dollar, GDP would rise by 2.1% in 1999 and 2.7% in 2000. JEL Code : FO1
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