Ultra-short-term forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) integrating all-sky images and historical sequences

Abstract

Accurate minute solar forecasts play an increasingly crucial role in achieving optimal intra-day power grid dispatch. However, continuous changes in cloud distribution and coverage pose a challenge to solar forecasting. This study presents a convolutional neural network-long short-term memory (CNN-LSTM) model to predict the future 10-min global horizontal irradiance (GHI) integrating all-sky image (ASI) and GHI sequences as input. The CNN is used to extract the sky features from ASI and a fully connected layer is used to extract historical GHI information. The resulting temporary information outputs are then merged and forwarded to the LSTM for forecasting the GHI values for the next 10 min. Compared to CNN solar radiation forecasting models, incorporating GHI into the forecasting process leads to an improvement of 18% in the accuracy of forecasting GHI values for the next 10 min. This improvement can be attributed to the inclusion of historical GHI sequences and regression via LSTM. The historical GHI contains valuable meteorological information such as aerosol optical thickness. In addition, the sensitivity analysis shows that the 1-lagged input length of the GHI and ASI sequence yields the most accurate forecasts. The advantages of CNN-LSTM facilitate power system stability and economic operation. Codes of the CNN-LSTM model in the public domain are available online on the GitHub repository https://github.com/zoey0919/CNN-LSTM-for-GHI-forecasting.