Ukrainian Missile Nonproliferation: The Challenge for the United States' Policy of Engagement

Abstract

Abstract : The nonproliferation of Ukraine's advanced ballistic missile technologies is a key challenge for Ukraine and the United States. Ukraine was the developer of many types of advanced Soviet ballistic missiles and space systems, and its challenge is to find economically and commercially viable alternatives for its missile design and manufacturing expertise. This is particularly important because Ukraine's need for hard cash increases its temptation to sell missile technology to rogue nations. The challenge for the U.S. is to facilitate Ukraine's economic transformation toward a market economy while discouraging the profitable sale and proliferation of its sensitive technologies. To this end, the U.S. has allowed Ukraine to compete in the U.S. space launch market, has encouraged international joint space ventures, and has helped Ukraine develop an export control system. Ukraine officially supports missile nonproliferation and has agreed to abide by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR). Nevertheless, the U.S. has been concerned about the possibilities of missile technology leakage and the Ukrainian government's ability and willingness to control it. The U.S. must continue to offer incentives to help strengthen Ukraine's commitment to missile nonproliferation, minimize technology leakage, and encourage it to give up its ballistic missile capabilities. But the U.S. must also be sensitive to and address the economic, military, and political disincentives for Ukraine to fully support U.S. nonproliferation interests.