U.S.—North Korean Relations: Classifications Based on Policy Decisions and Their Effect on the Korean Peninsula

Abstract

IntroductionThe relationship between the United States and North Korea is wavering between confrontation and communication, depending on the choices made by President Obama and Kim Jong Il. To have a realistic outlook upon the situation, it would be of significant value to categorize the relationship and to determine the South Korean government's countermeasures based on these categories.President Obama has already made public his stance over the two Koreas. For South Korea, he has revealed his plan to develop the U.S.-South Korea relationship into one of companionship, based on alliance. In his electoral manifesto, The Blueprint for Change, he expressed his will to construct a new form of companionship that would go beyond a mutual alliance, summit conferences, and the Six-Party Talks. Instead of emphasizing bilateral relations, he chose to maintain a strong connection with multiple allies such as Japan, Australia, and Korea.President Obama has also established his stance1 upon the U.S. relationship with North Korea. In the spring of 2009, relations between North Korea and the United States seemed to be cold. However, by the end of the year, there had been some improvements, and the relationship now seems to have warmed. In the long run, it is likely that President Obama will attempt direct talks with Kim Jong Il, and so we can predict some improvement in the bilateral relations between the United States and North Korea. During the Clinton administration, while the Democrats were in office, North Korea felt unsatisfied due to the fact that there were insufficient improvements in relations. These situations have created the basis for the virtuous circle of dialogue between Kim and President Obama.In the process of improving relations, it is likely that President Obama will promote smart diplomacy by alleviating the remaining sanctions, admitting North Korea into a U.S.-led global society, and recognizing North Korea as a normal state. North Korea seems to anticipate this as well.Throughout this process, President Obama may move towards declaring the end of the Korean War and the beginnings of negotiation for a peace treaty. In the end, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) may reach a mutual agreement on the issue of normalization during President Obama's term.However, in the short run, President Obama is unlikely to be able to find an easy solution to the North Korean nuclear problem. North Korea is pressuring the United States with its Edge-of-Cliff policy, and is constantly intensifying the pressure.Also, the North Korean nuclear problem can be resolved only if there are changes in North Korea's stance, not those of South Korea or the United States. It is difficult to envisage a peaceful, complete settlement to the North Korean nuclear problem without North Korea's decision-making and participation. A complete settlement of the problem may even have to be delayed until after normalization between the DPRK and the United States.North Korea chose nuclear weapons as the most inexpensive method of ensuring national security. The United States has decided that it is dangerous for North Korea, the base of tyranny, to possess nuclear power and has urged North Korea to abandon it.2There are many factors in determining peace in the Korean Peninsula, but there are none as definitive as the confrontation and communication between North Korea and the United States. This does not mean that other elements, such as the role of South Korea and China, are unimportant, and these elements will be taken into consideration. Nevertheless, in this paper, the relationship between North Korea and United States will be considered as the most important factor in our analysis.If the two possibilities of communication and confrontation between North Korea and United States are mixed and the relation categorized, then four types concerning the future of the Korean Peninsula can be extracted. …