Typology of Urban Shrinkage in Russia: Trajectories of Russian Cities

Abstract

Most cities experience growth periods, leading to a population boom and to stagnation periods followed by population decline. Russian scientific literature uses terms such as depressed, crisis, problematic, and waning cities to describe the processes inherent to the phenomenon of shrinkage. To this day, there is no unanimity in the terms and definitions used, so each study sets its own criterion to define shrinkage. The current study aims to elaborate a growth-shrinkage typology of Russian cities, outline major shrinkage features, and answer the question of what might have initiated shrinking processes in the Russian Federation. The authors applied cluster analysis to 883 cities to study growth trajectories and decline over the last 30 years. Six types of cities were revealed: constantly growing, growing with stumbling, parabolic type, inverse parabolic type, continuous shrinkage after the year 1998, and continuous shrinkage after the year 1991. The main findings are that 73% of Russian cities have been experiencing shrinkage to various degrees, and only 27% are growing or have stood on the path of stable development recently. This study provides a better understanding of urban shrinkage in Russia, brings additional insights into the types of shrinkage of Russian cities, and fills the scientific literature gap. Current typology covers a broad range of Russian cities and could provide a new perspective on shrinkage problems in Russia.