Identification of Shrinking Cities on the Main Island of Taiwan Based on Census Data and Population Registers: A Spatial Analysis

Di Hu

doi:10.3390/ijgi10100694

Abstract

At the end of the 20th century, the phenomenon of urban shrinkage received widespread attention, with population decline as its core characteristic. In 2020, the Taiwanese population had negative growth and faced a low fertility rate and an aging population. This study used exploratory spatial data analysis to identify shrinking cities in Taiwan based on census data and population registers. The results indicated that Taiwan has 11 shrinking counties and 202 shrinking towns. Urban shrinkage occurred in the 1980s and continued from the suburbanization stage to the re-urbanization stage. Five types of spatial patterns in the 11 shrinking counties were observed. In the majority of the shrinking counties, towns with high population densities were unable to avoid shrinkage. A global spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that shrinkage and non-shrinkage have become increasingly apparent at the town level since 2005. A local spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates that the spatial clustering of towns with population growth or decline from 2000 to 2020 has changed. Based on each town’s development, a two-step cluster analysis was conducted in which all towns were divided into four categories. Shrinking towns exist in each category, but with a different proportion. Based on the results of two-step cluster analysis combined with spatial analysis, this study discovered that both urbanization and suburbanization cause shrinkage in Taiwan, but the affected localities are distinct. For most shrinking counties, their spatial model indicates a relationship between shrinking and the urbanization of their towns. Keelung City and Chiayi City have the most potential to reverse the shrinkage. This study helps authorities better manage growth and implement regional revitalization.

Highlights

In the mid to late 20th century, as the global population multiplied, the global urbanization rate increased
From 1980 to 2020, Taiwan’s total population increased from 17.97 million to 23.57 million, and the shrinkage of counties and towns was hidden by 40 years of population growth
An analysis of the spatial pattern of shrinkage revealed that towns with high population densities were unable to avoid shrinkage

Summary

Introduction

In the mid to late 20th century, as the global population multiplied, the global urbanization rate increased. Urban shrinkage, characterized by population decline, has become a worldwide phenomenon [1,2]. This chapter indicated that cities do grow and experience rising and falling cycles; recessions and population shrinkage lead to permanent changes in urban structures. Since the beginning of the 21st century, several cities across Europe and North America have experienced population decline, an increase in vacant space, and the underutilization of urban infrastructure [4]. The phenomenon of city shrinkage began to appear in China [5,6,7], Japan [8,9], and South Korea [10,11,12]

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion