Typologies of South African small-scale farmers and their risk perceptions: an unsupervised machine learning approach

Abstract

PurposeSmall-scale farmers are highly heterogeneous with regard to their types of farming, levels of technology adoption, degree of commercialization and many other factors. Such heterogeneous types, respectively groups of small-scale farming systems require different forms of government interventions. This paper applies a machine learning approach to analyze the typologies of small-scale farmers in South Africa based on a wide range of objective variables regarding their personal, farm and context characteristics, which support an effective, target-group-specific design and communication of policies.Design/methodology/approachA cluster analysis is performed based on a comprehensive quantitative and qualitative survey among 212 small-scale farmers, which was conducted in 2019 in the Limpopo Province of South Africa. An unsupervised machine learning approach, namely Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), is applied to the survey data. Subsequently, the farmers' risk perceptions between the different clusters are analyzed and compared.FindingsAccording to the results of the cluster analysis, the small-scale farmers of the investigated sample can be grouped into four types: subsistence-oriented farmers, semi-subsistence livestock-oriented farmers, semi-subsistence crop-oriented farmers and market-oriented farmers. The subsequently analyzed risk perceptions and attitudes differ considerably between these types.Originality/valueThis is the first typologisation of small-scale farmers based on a comprehensive collection of quantitative and qualitative variables, which can all be considered in the analysis through the application of an unsupervised machine learning approach, namely PAM. Such typologisation is a pre-requisite for the design of more target-group-specific and suitable policy interventions.