Typhoon/Hurricane Disaster Prediction and Prevention for Coastal, Offshore, and Nuclear Power Plant Infrastructure

Abstract

With an increasing tendency of natural hazard frequency and intensity, risk assessment of some design codes for coastal defense infrastructure should be of paramount importance in influencing the economic development and protection of life in China. Comparison between existing extreme statistical models like Gumbel, Weibull, P-III distribution or probable maximum typhoon/hurricane (PMT/PMH), and design basis flood (DBF) with our proposed univariate and multivariate compound extreme value distribution (CEVD and MCEVD) showed that all the planned, designed, and constructed coastal infrastructure for cities and nuclear power plants that use the accepted, traditional safety regulations is menaced by the possibility of future typhoon/hurricane disasters and cannot satisfy the safety requirements that accompany the increasing tendency of extreme natural hazards. The disasters caused by Hurricane Katrina (2005), Rita (2005), and Sandy (2012) have validated the 1982 CEVD and 2006 MCEVD predicted extreme hazards in New Orleans, the Gulf of Mexico, and Philadelphia areas. The 2013 Typhoon Fitow disaster in China also validated the 2006 MCEVD predicted results.