Abstract
The World Meteorological Organization estimates that about 90 percent of all natural disasters is extreme meteorological hazards like typhoon/hurricane and tropical cyclone triggered disasters. With the increasing tendency of natural hazards, the typhoon induced surge, wave, precipitation, flood and wind as extreme external loads menacing Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) in coastal and inland provinces of China. For all of the planned, designed and constructed NPP in China the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and IAEA recommended Probable Maximum Hurricane/ Typhoon/(PMH/T), Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS), Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), Design Basis Flood (DBF) as safety regulations recommended for NPP defense infrastructures. This paper discusses the joint probability analysis of simultaneous occurrence typhoon induced extreme external hazards and compared with IAEA 2003-2011 recommended safety regulations for some NPP along China coast to make safety assessment based on the “As Low As Reasonable Practice” (ALARP) principle.
Highlights
In China, three Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) have been built along coasts in 1980, and more than 37 NPP along coast of South-East China Sea are in the stages of planning, design, or construction
For all of the planned, designed and constructed NPP in China the National Nuclear Safety Administration of China and IAEA recommended Probable Maximum Hurricane/ Typhoon/(PMH/T), Probable Maximum Storm Surge (PMSS), Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), Design Basis Flood (DBF) as safety regulations recommended for NPP defense infrastructures
Using Compound Extreme Value Distribution (CEVD) [14], the predicted hurricane central pressures with return period of 50 yr and 1000 yr were close to Standard Project Hurricane (SPH) and PMH, respectively, except that for the sea area nearby New Orleans (Zone A) and East Florida (Zone1) coasts, hurricane intensities predicted using CEVD were obviously severer than National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) proposed values
Summary
In China, three NPP have been built along coasts in 1980, and more than 37 NPP along coast of South-East China Sea are in the stages of planning, design, or construction. If M9 earthquake occurs at Manila trench or Rykyu trench, the wave produced by tsunami wave at south and southeast China coast would be no more than 5 6 m [1]. In 2006, typhoon disasters were especially serious in China. The economic loss reached 80 billion RMB and influenced agriculture areas of totally more than 2800 thousand hectares. Among these disasters, typhoon Saomai induced 3.76 m surges and 7 m waves, causing 240 deaths, sinking 952 ships and damaging 1594 others in Shacheng harbor. If the typhoon Saomai had landed 2 hours later, the simultaneous occurrence of the typhoon surge and high spring tide with 7 m wave would have inundated most areas of the Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, where located several NPP. The results would be comparable with 2011 Japanese nuclear disaster
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