Type of Contest, Candidate Strategy, and Turnout in Presidential Primaries

Abstract

This article adds to the understanding of participation in presidential primaries by: (1) incorporating the differences in the nature of the nomination contest between the party controlling the presidency and the opposition party, and (2) positing candidate strategy as an important intervening variable through which many of the legal and scheduling factors affect primary turnout. As more rules affect candidate strategy in the in-party while the earliness of the primary influences candidate actions in the out-party, the indirect influences on turnout differ between the two types of contest. The aspects of candidate strategy influencing turnout directly also vary by the types of contest with the number of candidates being important to the out-party and the intensity of campaigning being important to the in-party model.