Two-Way Calibration-Validation of SWAT Model for a Small Prairie Watershed with Short Observed Record

Abstract

The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was calibrated for a small watershed with extensive irrigation, low runoff, and a short (2004-2007) period of record in the semi-arid region of the Canadian prairies. The watershed is located on a segment of a river. The net flow between the upstream (inlet) and downstream (outlet) locations of the reach comprises only a fraction of the streamflow at the outlet. This type of watershed is rarely investigated and generally different from the pear shaped single outlet watersheds presented in SWAT literature. The objectives of this study were to determine if SWAT could be calibrated and validated on this unique watershed using one- and two-way calibration-validation methods, and to determine the effect of a variable climatic record on calibrated and validated parameters. To study the effect of a variable climatic record on the calibrated parameters for this watershed a two-way calibration verification scheme that involved two scenarios was used. Scenario 1 involved calibration using 2004 (average precipitation) and 2005 (above average precipitation) and validation on 2006 and 2007 (both below average precipitation). For scenario 2, the calibration and validation periods were reversed. A third scenario utilized the period of 20042006 for calibration and reserved the 2007 data for validation. The objective criteria used to evaluate model performance included decomposition of the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) into systematic and unsystematic error, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (EF) and the coefficient of determination (R2) as model best fit objective functions. The calibration results were satisfactory for scenarios 1 and 3. The calibration of scenario 2 and the validation results for all three scenarios were unsatisfactory. The objective criteria calculated separately for each year in the calibration records showed the calibration results were satisfactory for 2005 only, which is the only wet year in the observed record with above average precipitation. Thus, calibrated parameters were mainly influenced by the 2005 wet season. Therefore, SWAT model calibration on a mixed record of wet and dry conditions will reflect the hydrological processes dominant during wet conditions rather than those observed during dry ones. Although we conclude that the SWAT model could not be successfully validated on this unique watershed, a longer record may result in successful calibration and validation.