Two estimation methods for monthly mean hourly total irradiation on tilted surfaces from monthly mean daily horizontal irradiation from solar radiation data of Ajaccio, Corsica

Abstract

The sizing of a photovoltaic or a thermal solar system is generally based on monthly mean values of daily solar radiation on tilted surfaces. Many authors have demonstrated that it will be better to use monthly mean values of hourly radiation, particularly taking into account the Sun's position and to predict long-term performances of solar systems. (Liu and Jordan, 1963; Clark et al., 1984). Moreover, for most of the sites around the world, only monthly mean values of daily horizontal total irradiation are available for use in such calculations. We propose, by using well-known correlations in the literature, to estimate these monthly mean values of hourly total irradiation on tilted planes from monthly mean values of daily total horizontal irradiation, using three steps: •— determination of monthly mean value of hourly total horizontal irradiation;•— determination of monthly mean value of hourly diffuse horizontal irradiation;•— determination of monthly mean value of hourly total irradiation on tilted planes.In the first step, using the Collares Pereira and Rabl correlation, the root mean square error (RMSE) between correlated and experimental calculated data is 8%. In the second step, we used two methods: the first one utilizes the Erbs correlation and the second one is based on a local correlation which has been developed in our centre. Both of them gave identical results with an RMSE lower than 9%. We calculated monthly mean values of hourly total irradiation on three tilted planes (30°, 45° and 60°) and we compared these results with the experimental ones, obtaining a RMSE respectively of less than 10%. The method is then validated by these results.