Two contrasted future scenarios for the French agro-food system

Abstract

Narratives of two prospective scenarios for the future of French agriculture were elaborated by pushing several trends already acting on the dynamics of the current system to their logical end. The first one pursues the opening and specialization characterizing the long-term evolution of the last 50 years of most French agricultural regions, while the second assumes a shift, already perceptible through weak signals, towards more autonomy at the farm and regional scales, a reconnection of crop and livestock farming and a more frugal human diet. A procedure is proposed to translate these qualitative narratives into a quantitative description of the corresponding nutrient fluxes using the GRAFS (Generalized Representation of Agro-Food Systems) methodology, thus allowing a comprehensive exploration of the agronomical and environmental performance of these two scenarios. The results show that the pursuit of the opening and specialization of French agriculture, even complying with regulations regarding reasoned fertilization, would result in considerable environmental burdens namely in terms of water pollution. The scenario generalizing organic farming practices, reconnection of crop and livestock farming systems and a demitarian human diet makes it possible to meet the future national food demand while still exporting significant amounts of cereals to the international market and ensuring better groundwater quality in most French regions.