Two Cities, Two Realities?

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Capitalizing on large-scale origin-destination travel surveys conducted in two large Canadian urban centers, Montreal and Toronto, this paper presents a comparative analysis of the travel behavior trends in relation to variables such as demography, car accessibility, home location, and employment status. With trip rate as the dependent variable, three disaggregate multivariate regression models were estimated to observe how behaviors have evolved over time and how individual features affect the way in which people travel. These multivariate models allow the observation of the similarities and differences between explanatory factors between regions and over time. Although both cities are facing similar trends, such as the aging of the population, increasing rates of motorization, declining household sizes, and urban sprawl, they are also the sites of different trends with respect to average trip rates, differences between genders, and the impacts of car access. The geographic and cultural differences found between the populations of Toronto and Montreal include a smaller gender impact on trip generation in Montreal and a smaller age impact in Toronto. The study identified changes in the magnitude of the influence of explanatory variables on trip generation over time, including the declining importance of age and gender. The most promising policy actions that could be taken to decrease trip rates would be those that affect a decrease in household automobile ownership, as determined on the basis of the analysis in this paper.