Turnout and Representation Bias in Post-communist Europe

Abstract

Electoral participation has been declining in post-Soviet Europe as in almost all of the established democracies. Patterns of electoral abstention in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine reflect those in other countries, but show particularly strong effects for older age. Not only do older electors vote more often, they also have distinctive views on matters of public policy, particularly on the economy but also on the Soviet system, strong leadership and hypothetical membership of the European Union. These differences are diminished but nonetheless generally remain statistically significant even when socio-economic controls are introduced. These differences may be seen as a ‘representation bias’ that advantages particular sections of the electorate and the views with which they are associated. The particular forms that are taken by this bias in post-communist societies may be transitory, but here as elsewhere lower levels of turnout will continue to impart a significant bias to the extent to which some views rather than others are articulated within the political process.