Turning the tanker? Exploring the preconditions for change in the global petrochemical industry

Abstract

Meeting the goals set out in the Paris Agreement will require rapid and deep reductions of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) across all sectors of the global economy. Like all major societal transformations, this climate transition will impact both social and technical aspects of society and, depending on how it evolves, will reallocate social and economic benefits and costs differently. Recognising the importance of decarbonising key industry sectors with large GHG emissions and an significant impact on society, this study explores the opportunities and tensions involved in a transition of the petrochemical industry. We do so by analysing how access to natural resources, the petrochemical industry's role in the economy and the socio-political landscape in key petrochemical producing countries impacts prerequisites for change. The assessment shows that devising adequate policy responses, building legitimacy for change and potentially building bottom-up pressure for a timely climate transition are likely to look very different in the 10 countries with the greatest active petrochemical capacity in the world: China, the United States, India, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Russia, Iran, Germany and Taiwan. The indicators used to explore the prerequisites for change all point to areas where actions and policies must advance for a transition to be realised. This includes efforts to cap fossil feedstock supply and production capacity, efforts to limit and ultimately reduce demand for plastics and fertilisers, and measures to formulate transition strategies and policies that capture and provide agency for communities and groups that are currently on the receiving end of negative health and environmental impacts from the petrochemical industry and that will also, in many cases, be most closely affected by a transition.