Turkish Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

Abstract

Abstract : As Turkey enters the 21st century, it faces a troubled environment, domestically and internationally. Uncertainties regarding the country's future and its external policies have increased significantly as a result of Turkey's own economic crises and political turmoil, troubling developments in nearby regions, and challenges further afield. As a consequence, the task of understanding and assessing Turkey's international role has become more complex and far more difficult. During the Cold War, Turkey acted as a bulwark against the expansion of Soviet influence into the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East. With the end of the Cold War, Ankara's policy horizons have expanded and Turkey has become a more assertive and independent actor on the international stage. Where once Turkey primarily looked West, today Turkey is increasingly being pulled East and South as well. As a result, Turkey has been forced to redefine its foreign and security policy interests and to rethink its international relationships. If Turkey were a small state located in Antarctica or the South Sea Islands, these changes might matter little. But Turkey stands at the nexus of three areas of increasing strategic importance to the United States and Europe: the Balkans, the Caspian region, and the Middle East. Thus, how Turkey evolves is important, both to the United States and to Europe. Turkey's sheer size, moreover, gives it important geostrategic weight. Turkey's population is currently nearly 68 million-the second largest in Europe behind Germany-and may be close to 100 million by the middle of the 21st century. This would make Turkey the most populous country in Europe.