The Politics of Trade and Turkish Foreign Policy

Abstract

Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes For a discussion of the concept of ‘trading state’ with respect to Turkey see K. Kirişci, ‘The Transformation of Turkish Foreign Policy: The Rise of the Trading State’, New Perspectives on Turkey, Vol.40 (2009), pp.29–57. Based on TUIK (Turkish Statistical Institute) data available at http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do?tb_id=12&ust_id=4. Ibid. Figures given in the text are in current US dollars. This means that since the national accounts data is collected using the national currency, current U.S. dollars data uses the average exchange rate belonging to that year in which the data is collected (1985 and 2008 in this case). Based on World Bank's World Development Indicators (WDI) database available at http://databank.worldbank.org/ddp/home.do?Step=12&id=4&CNO=2. WDI gives this figure as 80% in 2009 and 81% in 2008. Based on TUIK (Turkish Statistical Institute) data available at http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do?tb_id=12&ust_id=4. Undersecretariat of the Prime Ministry for Foreign Trade (DTM), ‘Dış Ticaretin Görünümü: 2008’ [Outlook for Foreign Trade: 2008], p.15, http://www.dtm.gov.tr/dtmweb/index.cfm?action=detayrk&dil=TR&yayinid=1115&icerikid=1224&from=home (accessed 14 Aug. 2010). M. Steyn, ‘Who Lost Turkey?’, The Washington Times, 4 June 2010; J. Kitfield, ‘Who Lost Turkey?’, The National Journal, 21 June 2010; S. Çağaptay, ‘Turkey Lost Turkey’, The Wall Street Journal, 12July 2010; S. Cook, ‘How Do You Say Frenemy in Turkish?’, Foreign Policy, 1 June 2010, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2010/06/01/how_do_you_say_frenemy_in_Turkish (accessed 1 Sept. 2010). OECD, ‘Turkey: Recovery a Chance to Reinforce Long-Term Economic Growth’, http://www.oecd.org/document/15/0,3343,en_2649_34569_46011535_1_1_1_37443,00.html (accessed 15 Sept. 2010). Economist, ‘A Special Report on Turkey: Anchors Aweigh’, 21 Oct. 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/17276440?story_id=17276440 (accessed 23 October 2010). ‘Türkiye Avrupa'nın büyüme lideri’ [Turkey is Europe's Leader in Growth], Radikal, 1 April 2011, http://www.radikal.com.tr/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalDetayV3&Date=31.3.2011&ArticleID=1044674&CategoryID=80; TUIK Haber Bulteni, ‘Gayri Safi Yurtici Hasila IV. Donem: Ekim, Kasim, Aralik/2010’ [Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter: October-November-December 2010],http://www.tuik.gov.tr/OncekiHBZip.do?islem=postmyChoice (accessed 7 April 2011). For an extensive survey of the Turkish economy's evolution see Y. Kepenek and N. Yentürk, Türkiye Ekonomisi [Turkish Economy] (Istanbul: Remzi Kitapevi, 2009); Z. Öniş, State and Market: The Political Economy of Turkey in Comparative Perspective (Istanbul: Boğaziçi University Press, 1998). ‘Ramstore Usküp'e’ [Ramstore to Uskup], Radikal, 3 Oct. 2005, http://www.radikal.com.tr/haber.php?haberno=165793&tarih=03/10/2005 (accessed 12 December 2010). ‘Investment in Joint Russian–Turkish Projects to Top 25 Billion USD’, Ria Novosti, 12 May 2010, http://en.rian.ru/world/20100512/158991629.html. ‘Şantiyeye dönen Batum'da Türkler Başrolde’ [Turks are in the Leading Role in Batumi, which has Turned into a Construction Ground], Radikal, 28 Sept. 2010, http://www.radikal.com.tr/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalHaberDetay&ArticleID=1021104&Date=05.10.2010&CategoryID=101. ‘Şişecam Komşu'da milyar dolara gidiyor’ [Sisecam earning billion dollars at the neighbor], Radikal, 28 March 2008, http://www.radikal.com.tr/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalHaberDetay&ArticleID= 844167&Date=05.10.2010&CategoryID=101. USAID Report, Kurdistan Region Economic Development Assessment, Dec. 2008, p.26. B. Aras, ‘Turkey and the GCC: An Emerging Relationship’, Middle East Policy, Vol.XII, No.4, (Winter 2005), p. 96. ‘Interview: Syria's Investment Drive Gathers Steam’, Reuters Africa, 4 Oct. 2010, http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFLDE6930M620101004. ‘Conference on Investment in Syrian Coast Kicks Off / 60 Turkish Firms Participating’, Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA), 3 Oct. 2010, http://www.sana.sy/eng/24/2010/10/03/311036.htm. K. Kirişci, ‘A Friendlier Schengen Visa System as a Tool of ‘Soft Power’: The Experience of Turkey’, European Journal of Migration and Law, Vol.7, No.4 (2005), pp.343–67. N.C. Bilbassy, ‘Leave it to Turkish Soap Operas to Conquer Hearts and Minds’, Foreign Policy, 15 April 2010, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/04/15/leave_it_to_turkish_soap_operas_to_conquer_hearts_and_minds ‘Yeni bir Ortadoğu Doğuyor’ [A New Middle East is Being Born], Milliyet, 10 June 2010, http://www.milliyet.com.tr/yeni-bir-ortadogu-doguyor-/ekonomi/sondakikaarsiv/24.09.2010/1249276/default.htm. Data obtained from A. Nergiz, ‘Türkiye'de Sivil Havacılığın Gelişimi ve THY’ [The Development of Civil Aviation in Turkey and THY] (Master's thesis, Istanbul, Marmara University, Social Science Institute, 2008); See also THY, Annual Report 2009, http://wwwdownload.thy.com/download/investor_relations/annual_reports/2009_Faaliyet_Raporu_en.pdf; Turkish Airlines, Destinations andFrequencies, http://www.turkishairlines.com/en-INT/corporate/news/press_room/partnership/frequencies.aspx (accessed 12 March 2011). For an assessment of Turkey's trade relations with the European Union see S. Ülgen and Y.Zahariadis, ‘The Future of Turkish–EU Trade Relations: Deepening vs. Widening’, EU–Turkey Working Papers No.5, Aug. 2004: Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels. H. Barkey, ‘The Silent Victor: Turkey's Role in the Iran–Iraq War’, in K. Efraim (ed.), The Iran–Iraq War: Impact and Implications (London: Macmillan, 1989). C. Aktar and N. Ogelman, ‘Recent Developments in East–West Migration: Turkey and the Petty Traders’, International Migration, Vol.32, No.2, (1994), pp.343–53. ‘Suitcase trade’ refers to trade conducted by foreign nationals who come to Turkey to sell and buy or just buy goods that they are able to carry in their suitcases and then trade back in their respective countries. This trade is often tolerated by the authorities and goes unrecorded. D. Sezer Bazoğlu, ‘Russia: The Challenge of Reconciling Geopolitical Competition with Economic Partnership’, in B. Rubin and K. Kirişci (eds.), Turkey in World Politics (London and Boulder: Lynne Rienner, 2001). For a more recent assessment of relations between Turkey and Russia see B. Aras, Turkey and the Russian Federation: An Emerging Multidimensional Partnership, SETA Policy Brief No.35 (Ankara: SETA Foundation, 2009). The conceptual basis of this ‘new’ policy can be derived from the writings of Ahmet Davutoğlu. A. Davutoğlu, Stratejik Derinlik Türkiye'nin Uluslararası Konumu (Istanbul: Küre, 2001). For an elaboration see A. Davutoğlu, ‘Türkiye merkez ülke olmalı’ [Turkey should be the center country], Radikal, 26 Feb. 2004; and A. Davutoğlu, ‘Turkey's Foreign Policy Vision: An Assessment of 2007’, Insight Turkey, Vol.10, No.1 (2008), pp.77–96; A. Davutoğlu, ‘Turkey's Zero-Problems Foreign Policy’, Foreign Policy, 20 May 2010. For an assessment of this policy see A. Murinson, ‘The Strategic Depth Doctrine of Turkish Foreign Policy’, Middle Eastern Studies, Vol.42, No.6 (Nov. 2006), pp. 945–64; J. Walker, ‘Learning Strategic Depth: Implications of Turkey's New Foreign Policy Doctrine’, Insight Turkey, Vol.9, No.3 (2007), pp.32–47; and A. Evin et al., Getting to Zero: Turkey, Its Neighborhood and the West (Washington, DC: Transatlantic Academy, 2010). M.B. Altunışık, ‘Worldviews and Turkish Foreign Policy in the Middle East’, New Perspectives on Turkey, No.40 (2009), pp.171–94. ‘An Unusual New Friendship: Turkey and Iraq's Kurds are getting on a lot better than usual’, Economist, 19 Feb. 2009. On improvement of relations see also B. Aras, ‘Turkey's Rise in the Greater Middle East: Peace-building in the Periphery’, Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, Vol.11, No.1 (March 2009), pp.29–41; Ş. Kardaş, ‘Turkey: Redrawing the Middle East Map or Building Sandcastles?’, Middle East Policy, Vol.XVII, No.1 (Spring 2010), pp.115–36. For Turkey's previously poor relations with the Kurds of northern Iraq see A. Lundgren, Unwelcome Neighbor: Turkey's Kurdish Policy (London: I. B. Tauris, 2007); and B. Park, Turkey's Policy Towards Northern Iraq: Problems and Perspectives (London: Routledge, 2005). Davutoğlu, Stratejik Derinlik Türkiye'nin Uluslararası Konumu. See for example his remark that ‘economic interdependence best way to prevent any crisis’ quoted in J.Zacharia, ‘Turkey Hopes to Grow Economic Ties and Influence within the Middle East’, Washington Post, 8 April 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/04/07/AR2010040705012.html. Davutoğlu, Stratejik Derinlik Türkiye'nin Uluslararası Konumu, p.83. Interview with Ahmet Davutoğlu, ‘İş Dünyası artık Dış Politikanın Öncülerinden’ [Business World is now among the Leading Forces of Foreign Policy], Turkishtime (April–May 2004). ‘İşadamları Gül’ün peşinde Evliya Çelebi'ye döndü’ [Businessmen have turned into Evliya Celebi in the steps of Gul], Radikal, 14 Oct. 2010, http://www.radikal.com.tr/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalHaberDetay&ArticleID=1023603&Date=14.10.2010&CategoryID=101. K. Kirişçi, ‘Turkey's Foreign Policy in Turbulent Times’, Chaillot Paper No.92 (Paris: Institute for Security Studies, Sept. 2006). ‘12 Günü Havada Geçti’ [Spent 12 Days on Air], Milliyet Daily, 12 Oct. 2009, http://www.milliyet.com.tr/--gunu-havada-gecti/ekonomi/haberdetayarsiv/24.09.2010/1149086/default.htm. E. Doğan, Impact of Visa Regimes over Travel Decisions and Patterns of Turkish Citizens (MireKoç Report, Istanbul: Koç University, 2009). Z. Özler and M. Özsöz, Visa Hotline Project Final Report (Ankara: Economic Development Foundation Publications, No. 231, 2010). Interview with Can Baydarol, EurActiv, 28 Sept. 2009. TOBB, ‘Hisarcıklıoğlu Almanya'dan iş dünyası için vize konusunda sorunları çözme sözü aldı’ [Hisarciklioglu Took the Promise from Germany of Solving the Business Visa Problems], 24 Sept. 2010, http://www.tobb.org.tr/haber2.php?haberid=3160&sy=1. ‘Bağış: AB Vizesini Kaldırmaya Çalışıyoruz’ [Bagis: We are Trying to get rid of EU Visa], NTVMSNBC, 22 Jan. 2010, http://www.ntvmsnbc.com/id/25047650/. The minister repeated this point at a conference in Istanbul in October 2010, ‘How to Keep the Engine Running? 5 Years of Turkey–EU Accession Negotiations and Beyond’, 1 Oct. 2010, Heinrich Böll Stiftung and Istanbul Policy Center, Istanbul. ‘Vize insan haklarına aykırı’ [Visa against Human Rights], Radikal Daily, 14 Oct, 2010, http://www.radikal.com.tr/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalHaberDetay&ArticleID=1023600&Date=14.10.2010&CategoryID=101. T. Işık, ‘Bu da Türkiye–Suriye Vize Açılımı’ [Turkey–Syria Visa Opening], Radikal Daily, 17Sept.2009, http://www.radikal.com.tr/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalDetay&Date=&ArticleID=954878. B. Akgün, ‘Turkey's Opening to Africa’, Journal of Modern African Studies, Vol.48, No.4 (2010), p.532. Ibid., pp.539–40. M. Dalar, ‘İnsanlık Suçu ve Soykırım Tartışmaları Bağlamında Darfur Sorunu ve Türkiye’, Ortadoğu Analiz, Vol.1, No.12 (Dec. 2009), pp.93–101. See also ‘Sudanese President Bashir's Visit to Turkey in Limbo’, Hürriyet Daily News, 8 Nov. 2009, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=a-muslim-can-never-commit-genocide-erdogan-defends-bashir-2009-11-08; A. İnsel, ‘Erdoğan‘ın Mutlak Doğruları’, Radikal, 13 June 2006, http://www.radikal.com.tr/Radikal.aspx?aType=RadikalEklerDetay&ArticleID=1002525&Date=06.10.2010&CategoryID=42. For a broader assessment of Turkey's Darfur policy see M. Özkan and B. Akgün, ‘Why Welcome al-Basheer? Contextualizing Turkey's Darfur Policy’, Seta Policy Brief, 45, July 2010. Based on Turkish Statistical Agency's data. This figure was exactly $988,138 in 2002, $5,715,555 in 2008 and $4,892,814 in 2009. J. Zacharia, ‘Turkey Hopes to Grow Economic Ties and Influence within Middle East’, Washington Post, 8 April 2010. There is no common agreed list of ‘Anatolian Tigers’. The list in the text has been compiled from a number of sources including O. Demir, M. Acar and M. Toprak, ‘Anatolian Tigers or Islamic Capital: Prospects and Challenges’, Middle Eastern Studies, Vol.40, No.6 (2004), pp.166–88; Ş. Pamuk, ‘Economic Change in Twentieth Century Turkey’, in R. Kasaba (ed.), Cambridge History of Turkey: Volume 4 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2008), pp.266–300; European Stability Institute (ESI), Islamic Calvinists: Change and Conservatism in Central Anatolia (Berlin: European Stability Initiative, Sept. 2005). The remarks were made during an address to an AKP party congress in Düzce. ‘Erdoğan İsrail Karşıtlarına Çattı’ [Erdogan Challenged Opposers of Israel], Milliyet Daily, 24 May 2009, http://www.milliyet.com.tr/Siyaset/HaberDetay.aspx?aType=HaberDetay&KategoriID=4&ArticleID=1098285&Date=24.05.2009&b=Erdogan,%20Israil%20karsitlarina%20catti. Ibid. The entry of Israeli nationals to Turkey declined significantly in 2009. Based on the TUIK data, in 2008 this number was 558,183. The number declined to 311,582 in 2009. D. Kraft, ‘Despite Raid, Mostly Business as Usual for Israel and Turkey’, New York Times, 2 July 2010. Calculated from data on http://www.tuik.gov.tr. In 2009 trade volume with Israel was 2,597,163USD, in 2010 it was 3,442,604USD. In 2009 trade volume with EU 27 countries was 103,601,062USD, in 2010 it was 124,873,973USD. B. Aras and R. Karakaya Polat, ‘From Conflict to Cooperation: Desecuritization of Turkey's Relations with Iran and Syria’, Security Dialogue, Vol.39, No.5 (2008), pp.495–505. According to the Emniyet Genel Müdürlüğü data compiled by TUIK, http://www.tuik.gov.tr/VeriBilgi.do?tb_id=51&ust_id=14. Emniyet Genel Müdürlüğü data compiled by TUIK. Figures for the entries were obtained from http://www.tuik.gov.tr and ‘neighbours’ include immediate neighbours sharing borders with Turkey plus Black Sea littoral states and Moldova. These states are Greece, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Russian Federation, Georgia, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Armenia, Moldova and Romania. For a brief survey of these efforts see M. Altunışık and E. Cuhadar, ‘Turkey's Search for a Third Party Role in Arab–Israeli Conflicts: a Neutral Facilitator or a Principal Power Mediator?’, Mediterranean Politics, Vol.15, No.3 (Nov. 2010), pp.373–94; ‘The Great Mediator: Sometimes Turkey really is a Bridge between West and East’, The Economist, 19 Aug. 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/1684713; International Crisis Group, ‘Turkey and the Middle East: Ambitions and Constraints’, Europe Report No.203, 7 April 2010; K. Kirişci, N. Tocci and J. Walker, ‘A Neighborhood Rediscovered: Turkey's Transatlantic Value in the Middle East’, Brussels Forum Paper Series (Washington: German Marshall Fund of the United States, March 2010); Aras, ‘Turkey's Rise in the Greater Middle East. Although TAV had won the bid to manage Tehran airport and in spite of considerable pressure from the Turkish government and a favourably disposed Khatami administration, the Iranian Majlis blocked the deal. For details, see International Crisis Group, ‘Turkey and the Middle East’, p.17. ‘Turkish Tigers press Iran Trade amidst Fears of Sanctions’, Daily Star, 28 June 2010. Reported in Radikal Daily 23, 25 and 26 Sept. 2010. See also L. Weymouth, ‘Turkey's President on itsRelations with Iran, Israel and the U.S.’, The Washington Post, 22 Sept. 2010, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/21/AR2010092105114.html. A summary of the speech can be found in Hürriyet, 25 Sept. 2010, http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=gul-looks-to-future-in-speech-at-columbia-university-2010–09–25. United Against Nuclear Iran. Interactive list of blacklisted companies are available at http://www.unitedagainstnucleariran.com/ibr. Reuters, ‘Turkey's PM tells Businessmen to Boost Iran Trade’, 16 Sept. 2010, http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE68F2B820100916. S. Levy, ‘Can Sanctions on Iran Create the Leverage we Need?’, 20 Sept. 2010. Speech at CSIS. Transcript available at http://csis.org/files/attachments/100920_levey_transcript.pdf. R. Tait, ‘“Iran is our friend” Says the Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan’, Guardian, 26 Oct. 2009, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/26/turkey-iran1. See ‘Prime Minister Erdoğan Reiterates “no genocide” in Darfur’, Today's Zaman, 9 Nov. 2009; and ‘China tells PM Erdoğan to Withdraw Uighur Genocide Remark’, Today's Zaman, 15 July 2009. For his remarks claiming that Muslims cannot commit genocide, see L. Hart, ‘Turkey Leader Erdogan Claims Muslims cannot Commit Genocide’, Examiner, 15 June 2010, http://www.examiner.com/conservative-in-los-angeles/turkey-leader-erdogan-claims-muslims-cannot-commit-genocide Cagaptay, ‘Turkey Lost Turkey’; Cook, ‘How Do You Say Frenemy in Turkish?’; Steyn, ‘Who Lost Turkey?’; Kitfield, ‘Who Lost Turkey?’ E. Özkök, ‘Interview with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’, Hürriyet, 9 Nov. 2009. For these concerns and analysis of Arab perceptions of Turkey and Turkish foreign policy see M.Altunışık-Benli, Turkey: Arab Perspectives (Istanbul: TESEV Yayınları, 2010). T. Straubhaar, ‘Turkey as an Economic Neighbor’, in R. Linden (ed.), Turkey and Its Neighbors: Foreign Relations in Transition (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, in press, 2011); ‘Can Turkey combine EU Accession and Regional Leadership?’, CER Policy Brief, January 2010. Data available from Central Bank of Turkey (TCMB) available at www.tcmb.gov.tr. ‘10 ülke tercihli ticareti onayladı’ [10 Countries Approved Preferential Trade], Anadolu Ajansi, http://www.aa.com.tr/tr/10-ulke-tercihli-ticareti-onayladi.html. The desire to emulate the experience of the EU in regional integration has been noted by Ibrahim Kalın, the chief advisor of the prime minister as well as by some EU officials, see International Crisis Group, ‘Turkey and the Middle East: Ambitions and Constraints’, Europe Report No. 203, 7 April 2010, p.11. ‘Yeni Bir Ortadoğu Doğuyor’ [A New Middle East is Being Born], Milliyet Daily, 10 June 2010. M. Akgün et al., Orta Doğu'da Türkiye Algısı (Istanbul: TESEV Yayınları, 2009). International Crisis Group, ‘Turkey and the Middle East, p.ii. For the notion of ‘getting to zero’ see Evin et al., Getting to Zero. Interview with Ertuğrul Özkök in Hürriyet, 8 Nov. 2009. ‘Is Turkey Turning its Back on the West?’, The Economist, 21 Oct. 2010, http://www.economist.com/node/17309065?story_id=17309065.