Turkey vs Egypt in the Eastern Mediterranean

Abstract

The object of the study is Ankara's foreign policy strategy. The subject of the study is the positions of Turkey and Egypt in the Eastern Mediterranean region. The aim is to identify the possibility of a Turkish–Egyptian alliance in the region after the extremely tense relations recorded since 2013, the establishment in Egypt of a new president A.F. Al-Sisi, the ideological antipode of R.T. Erdogan. The relevance of the study is evidenced by changes in the rhetoric of Turkey's top officials and the demonstration of readiness to build a dialogue with Cairo. Particular attention is paid to Ankara's position on the establishment of maritime borders in the Aegean and Mediterranean Seas on the basis of bilateral agreements. Research methods: analysis of strategies, official documents, logical-heuristic and system methods, as well as analysis of political events in the region. Based on the analysis of primary sources (foreign policy strategies 2020-2023), it was revealed: since 2020, the Eastern Mediterranean region has been the main vector of Ankara's foreign policy. As noted in the reports of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the country is 70% dependent on foreign energy supplies, which explains Ankara's uncompromising position on securing its right to extract gas from the depths of the Eastern Mediterranean. Attempts to restore relations with Egypt are a geopolitical necessity. However, Cairo found itself in the position of Turkey's competitor in an effort to turn into an energy hub when exporting gas from Israel to Europe. Egypt attaches paramount importance to the issue of energy security, which is confirmed by the Egypt Vision 2030 strategy. The most advantageous for Egypt is the preservation of the Egypt-Israel-Greece-Cyprus block. Based on the conducted research, it can be concluded that there is an extremely low probability of a Turkish-Egyptian rapprochement. The findings of the study can be taken into account when studying and forecasting Turkey's foreign policy.