Tunisian Exceptionalism Or Constitutional Timing: A Comparison Of Democratic Transitions In The Middle East

Max Blaisdell

doi:10.6017/eurj.v12i2.9354

Abstract

Abstract: The protest movements of the Arab Spring prompted a major reevaluation amongst policymakers and academics alike about authoritarian regime stability in the Middle East. Counter to the euphoria that greeted the protests, continued instability, sectarianism, and extreme violence in several Middle Eastern states have sparked concerns that the dictators who ruled before may have been the better of two bad options. These concerns detract from the significant political transformation that Tunisia has undergone, from one of the most repressive dictatorships in the region to its sole genuine democracy. While Tunisia’s successful democratic transition looks like an anomaly in its current regional environment, Egypt did achieve a significant historic milestone when it elected President Morsi in free and fair elections. However his tenure did not last long, and Egypt’s broader failure to democratize prompts questions as to how democratic transitions succeed after dictatorships. By comparing the democratic transition processes in Tunisia and in Egypt, we can begin to elucidate the causes of the different outcomes of the protests in these two similar states. New political actors and certain ancien régime institutions played critical roles in ousting the dictators, but the timeline of whether democratic elections took place before or after new constitutions were adopted, was paramount in determining the success of the democratic transition. This is because constitutional timing structured whether the country’s political design would be determined by dialogue and deliberation or ad-hoc by the political actor with the greatest popularity.

Highlights

Tunisian Exceptionalism OR Constitutional TimingMax Blaisdell the Arab Spring protests were greeted with euphoria, but the resulting instability, sectarianism, and extreme violence in several Middle Eastern states have led some to believe that the toppled dictators may have been the lesser of two evils
Introduction did not necessarily approve ofAssad’s brutal actions to support his regime out of fear of the alternatives
If there is any incontrovertible theory in political science, it in Libya, the importance of clan and patronage ties under is that democracies do not go to war with one another

Summary

Tunisian Exceptionalism OR Constitutional Timing

Max Blaisdell the Arab Spring protests were greeted with euphoria, but the resulting instability, sectarianism, and extreme violence in several Middle Eastern states have led some to believe that the toppled dictators may have been the lesser of two evils. “The throngs of protesters clamoring for regime change augured new thinking about Arab political culture, which for so long had been defined by obedience to the whims of strongmen.” 17 theories, and develop my own explanatory model for the divergence in outcomes in Tunisia and Egypt’s democratic transitions. I argue that a further nuancing of the politicoinstitutional approach which incorporates an analysis of time frame and chronological ordering of democratic transition processes is the best model for understanding the Tunisian and Egyptian outcome disparity

Theoretical approaches to Democratic transitions

Authoritarian regime cross analysis

Findings

Analyzing important political actors in the transitions