Tsunami risk perception in southern Italy: first evidence from a sample survey

Abstract

Abstract. The Italian Tsunami Alert Centre of the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (Centro di Allerta Tsunami, hereinafter CAT-INGV) supported a computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) survey to investigate tsunami risk perception in two pilot regions of southern Italy. The survey was carried out on a stratified sample of 1021 interviewees representing about 3.2 million people living in 183 coastal municipalities of the two regions, namely Calabria and Apulia. The main goal of this research is to verify whether and how people's perception of tsunami hazard compares to the results of (PTHA) – probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (TSUMAPS-NEAM project; Basili et al., 2018). As shown by the results of this project, both investigated regions are characterised by high tsunami hazard. Nonetheless, the long return time of such events could lead people to consider the occurrence of a tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea to be very unlikely. The survey results reveal that people's risk perception is low: for almost half of the whole sample the occurrence of a tsunami in the Mediterranean Sea is considered quite unlikely, with a clear difference between Apulia and Calabria. In the latter region the risk perception is much higher than in the former, probably due to the shorter time elapsed since the last event. Also, belonging to different coastal areas1 appears to have a significant influence on the way tsunami hazard is conceived, having a stronger effect on risk characterisation: the interviewees of Tyrrhenian Calabria are indeed more likely to associate tsunami risk with volcanoes than the Ionian citizens. This is coherent considering the presence of active volcanoes and related tsunami precedents in the Tyrrhenian. Television emerged as the most relevant source of knowledge for almost 90 % of the sample, and the influence of media also results in the way tsunami risk is characterised. In particular, the survey showed that people's perception and understanding of tsunamis are affected by media accounts of large events, such as the 2004 Sumatra and the 2011 Japan tsunamis. At the same time, it is evident that the risk posed by smaller events is underrated. Furthermore, the survey's results show that the word “tsunami” occupies a different semantic space in comparison to the Italian traditional headword maremoto, with differences among sample strata. In other words, the same physical phenomenon would be understood in two different ways by younger, educated people and elders with a low education level. The results of this study, although limited to two regions, provide a first assessment of tsunami risk perception in Italy, also entailing important consequences for both risk communication practice and mitigation policies.