Tropical cyclone inundation potential on the Hawaiian Islands of Oahu and Kauai

Abstract

The lack of a continental shelf in steep volcanic islands leads to significant changes in tropical cyclone inundation potential, with wave setup and runup increasing in importance and wind driven surge decreasing when compared to more gently-sloped mainland regions. This is illustrated through high resolution modeling of waves, surge, and runup on the Hawaiian Islands of Oahu and Kauai. A series of hurricane waves and water levels were computed using the SWAN+ADCIRC models for a suite of 643 synthetic storm scenarios, while local wave runup was evaluated along a series of 1D transects using the phase-resolving model Bouss1D. Waves are found to be an extremely important component of the inundation, both from breaking wave forced increases in storm surge and also from wave runup over the relatively steep topography. This is clear in comparisons with debris lines left by Hurricane Iniki on the Island of Kauai, where runup penetration is much greater than still water inundation in most instances. The difference between steeply-sloping and gently-sloping topographies was demonstrated by recomputing Iniki with the same landfall location as Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana. Surge was greatly increased for the mild-slope Iniki-in-Louisiana case, while pure wind surge for Iniki-in-Kauai was very small.For the entire suite of storms, maxima on Kauai show predicted inundation largely confined to a narrow coastal strip, with few locations showing more than a few hundred meters of flooding from the shoreline. As expected, maximum flooded areas for the 643 storms were somewhat greater than the Iniki inundation.Oahu has significantly more low-lying land compared to Kauai, and consequently hypothetical tropical cyclone landfalls show much more widespread inundation. Under direct impact scenarios, there is the potential for much of Honolulu and most of Waikiki to be inundated, with both still water surge and wave runup contributing. Other regions of Oahu show inundation confined to a more narrow coastal strip, although there is still much infrastructure at risk.Even for very strong storms in Oahu and Kauai, maximum still water surge is relatively small, and does not exceed 3m in any storm modeled. In contrast, hurricane waves several kilometers from shore regularly exceed 10m due to the lack of a continental shelf.