Tropical cyclone genesis potential index over the western North Pacific simulated by CMIP5 models

Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the western North Pacific (WNP) is analyzed using 23 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models and reanalysis datasets. The models are evaluated according to TC genesis potential index (GPI). The spatial and temporal variations of the GPI are first calculated using three atmospheric reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis-1, and NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-2). Spatial distributions of July–October-mean TC frequency based on the GPI from ERA-interim are more consistent with observed ones derived from IBTrACS global TC data. So, the ERA-interim reanalysis dataset is used to examine the CMIP5 models in terms of reproducing GPI during the period 1982–2005. Although most models possess deficiencies in reproducing the spatial distribution of the GPI, their multimodel ensemble (MME) mean shows a reasonable climatological GPI pattern characterized by a high GPI zone along 20°N in the WNP. There was an upward trend of TC genesis frequency during 1982 to 1998, followed by a downward trend. Both MME results and reanalysis data can represent a robust increasing trend during 1982–1998, but the models cannot simulate the downward trend after 2000. Analysis based on future projection experiments shows that the GPI exhibits no significant change in the first half of the 21st century, and then starts to decrease at the end of the 21st century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 scenario. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the GPI shows an increasing trend in the vicinity of 20°N, indicating more TCs could possibly be expected over the WNP under future global warming.