TÜRKİYE’DE İTHALATIN İHRACATA ETKİSİ

Abstract

Turkey implemented programme based on import substitution in the 1960s and turned to domestic production and consumption by restrictions on bringing in foreign trade. Following the stagflationary process in the 1970s, Turkey aimed to follow the export-led growth model of the developing countries in the 1980s to reach the developed countries. In this context, the government shifted into export promotion strategy following the progressed made by newly industrialized countries. Accordingly, import restrictions were removed and exports were aimed at increasing. From the 1990s onwards, foreign trade has increased enormously. This increase has continued in the 2000s but imports have permanently increased more than exports. Turkey's import dependence has risen significantly reflecting the openness of the domestic markets. Importation of capital and intermediate goods has been the critical factor for Turkey's economic development.The main aim of this study is to examine the causal relationship between export and import.The dependency of import to the export in Turkey tested with a Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) and Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method by using monthly data 1992-2019 periods. Following empirical findings were reached in the study investigating: There are causality both from export to import and import to export. According to Engle-Granger (1987) test, cointegration has been detected between export and import. As a result of DOLS and FMOLS method made long term analysis, export is highly dependent on import.